Analysis of the Dynamic Co-movement Mechanism Between Cryptocurrencies and Traditional Assets

Abstract

This paper selects the data of Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 index from 2018 to 2025, utilizing GARCH(1,1) and DCC-GARCH models to depict the dynamic conditional correlations among assets. By incorporating the Global Geopolitical Risk Index, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, and the VIX panic index, it constructs daily and monthly cross-frequency regression models to examine their macro-driving mechanisms. The results show that whether at the high-frequency daily level or the smoothed monthly level, macroeconomic variables exhibit extremely significant driving effects on the co-movement of Bitcoin. Under the liquidity squeeze concerns triggered by intensified global panic or high inflation expectations, Bitcoin fails to act as a haven alongside gold. Instead, it exhibits a stronger synchronous crash with the US stock market. This empirical study rejects the hypothesis of Bitcoin as "digital gold," revealing its essence as a "risk amplifier" highly dependent on traditional liquidity, and provides quantitative support for international investors in asset allocation under extreme macroeconomic scenarios.