Is Graduate Unemployment More Strongly Associated With Field of Study Than With Regional Economic Conditions?

Abstract

The analysis draws on survey data from 1,500 recent graduates, examined using logistic regression models. Descriptive statistics showed that 7.3% of respondents experienced short-term unemployment, with Humanities and Business graduates disproportionately affected. Regional unemployment averaged 5.6%, highlighting variation in local economic conditions. Regression results revealed that field of study exerted the strongest effect on unemployment risk. Graduates from Humanities and Business disciplines faced odds ratios exceeding two compared to STEM graduates, reinforcing the structural advantage of quantitatively oriented and occupationspecific degrees. Regional unemployment also had a significant and independent impact. Each percentagepoint rise in the local unemployment rate corresponded to a measurable increase in the probability of graduate joblessness. Interaction terms between field and region did not yield strong or consistent effects, thus suggests that although fields differ in baseline employability, their vulnerability to regional shocks is broadly comparable. The findings imply that policy responses must operate on two fronts: redesigning curricula to enhance skill transferability and promoting regional economic resilience to ensure diverse opportunities for graduates.