Analysis of the Long-Term Trend and Anomalies of Urumqi’s Temperature under Global Warming.

Abstract

Global warming has become an indisputable scientific fact, and understanding its regional characteristics is a core issue in current climate research. Urumqi, a typical large inland city in the arid region of Central Asia, exhibits strong and sensitive climate change signals, making it a key indicator of regional responses under global warming. This paper aims to systematically review the long-term trends, seasonal variations, and anomaly characteristics of temperature changes in Urumqi. Additionally, the primary focus of this article is the temperature in Urumqi in the context of global warming. Based on 58 years of observational data, this study employed distributed lag nonlinear models, linear trend estimation, cumulative anomaly analysis, and the Mann-Kendall test to analyze temperature trends. These data mainly used a distributed lag non-linear model, Linear trend estimation, cumulative anomaly, and the M-K test. Results indicate that over the past 58 years, the annual average temperature in Urumqi has risen slowly, with the most intense warming in winter, followed by autumn and spring, and the weakest in summer. Extreme warm events are significantly more frequent than extreme cold events.. This temperature change pattern poses severe challenges to the stability of the Tianshan glaciers, regional water security, the urban ecological environment, and socio-economic development, urgently necessitating scientific adaptation and mitigation strategies.